NFL Week 5: DFS Picks | FanDuel DraftKings
October is here and the first quarter of the NFL season is complete. Week 5 brings us some exciting matchups we can exploit and two games with double-digit favorites.
The three highest total games this week are Arizona at Cincinnati (47.5 Total), Tampa Bay at New Orleans (47.0 Total) and Atlanta and Houston (48.5 Total). Two games you might want to avoid this week are Chicago at Oakland (40.5 Total) and Buffalo at Tennessee (38.5 Total).
We got 12 games on the main slate starting at 1pm on Sunday so let’s get into it.
It’s generally wise to start your lineups from the game with the highest projected total. Insert Deshaun Watson who quietly has the 4th highest FPPG and is against the Falcons who are struggling against the pass (23rd FDOPRK). Next down the list are Jameis Winston and Kyler Murray both are in great matchups and should do well.
David Johnson is popping in my models playing against the 31st FDOPRK Bengals defence. Leonard Fournette should also be on your radar after a stellar week 4 where the Jaguars finally remembered that he’s good at running the ball. If you’re chasing value you can take a flyer on David Montgomery from the Bears who has seen his touches increase each week.
When your QB publicly admits missed opportunities and you happen to be playing the Giants it’s a safe bet Adam Thielen will see an uptick in targets so lock me in. Next, I always like to stack a WR with my starting QB so you can plug in either DeAndre Hopkins (28% target share), Will Fuller (due for a breakout), Larry Fitzgerald (fast paced game), Chris Godwin (30+ fpts potential) and Mike Evans (30+ fpts potential). Also, you can run it back with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd or Auden Tate (nice value with Ross out). Looking at more value you have Golden Tate playing in his first game and with Devonte Adams set up miss this week Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison will see a large uptick in targets.
Nothing is really popping in my projections here so I might try to save salary. Tyler Eifert (24 routes in week 4) is okay as is Noah Fant. If you’d rather spend some money here I’d take a flyer on Jimmy Graham (9 targets last week).
This season has shown spending up for Defence hasn’t been a bad idea but it still isn’t a huge priority for me. Based on my lineup construction and game theory I’d be looking at Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars or Oakland Raiders.
Deshawn Watson and DeAndre Hopkins and Will Fuller + Julio Jones/Calvin Ridley
Getting exposure to the highest Total game isn’t a bad idea and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a ceiling game from either side here. You definitely want exposure
Kyler Murray and Larry Fitzgerald + Tyler Boyd/Tyler Eifert
A lower salary stack in a game that’s projected to score a decent amount of points.
Jameis Winston and Chris Godwin
These two where in some winning GPP lineups last week and they have a really good chance at repeating again this week. I don’t think the Saints will be able to keep up and as Winston showed earlier in the year he’s very capable of throwing a dud.
EXAMPLE LINEUP (FanDuel)
QB – Deshaun Watson
RB – Leonard Fournette
RB – David Johnson
WR – DeAndre Hopkins
WR – Julio Jones
WR – Larry Fitzgerald
TE – Tyler Eifert
FLEX – Adam Thielen
DEF – Dallas Cowboys