NFL Week 4: FanDuel|DraftKings DFS Picks
Week 4 is here and the Jets and 49ers on on the bye-week. We learned a few things from Week 3 and that is Daniel Jones looked great but his hands will be full without Barkley in the backfield this week. He had the 4th highest DKFpts last week – can he keep it up at home against the Redskins? Looking at the roster construction last week, paying up for studs isn’t the winning strategy. Top 2 QB’s where under $6.3k. In the top 10 RB’s – 5 were under $6k. The top 4 WR’s we’re under $7k. Going for a more balanced lineup last week would have been the way to go with the classic QB, WR1 stack. We recommended 3 players that were on the “Perfect Lineup” last week and 1 that was on the fringe of making the lineup – we’re going to build off that. We got 12 games on the main slate starting at 1pm on Sunday so let’s get into it.
Russell Wilson‘s price went DOWN from last week even though he led all QB’s in Fpts AND he’s playing the Cardinals who have one of the worst past Defenses. Deshaun Watson is another fine play that is popping in our models. We also can’t fault you for picking on the Dolphins and playing Philip Rivers. Rounding out to top P/$ value is Daniel Jones who’s going to be wearing a heavy crown this week with no Barkley.
TOP PLAY: Russell Wilson
TOP VALUE: Daniel Jones
It’s been mentioned a few times but no Barkley means Wayne Gallman will be taking over and is projected to have 15 touches, thus becoming the de-facto Value Play. I’m going to stay away from McCaffrey this week and as Austin Ekeler has a better matchup (@Dolphins) plus will be motivated with Gordon coming back next week. For other great plays you can look at Mark Ingram, Marlon Mack, Devonta Freeman (will be low owned, carries are increasing each week, and should finally find the end-zone),
TOP PLAY: Austin Ekeler
TOP VALUE: Wayne Gallman
I always like to stack my QB is a WR1 so we’re going to focus on DeAndre Hopkins, Keenan Allen, Tyler Lockett and Sterling Shepard. Depending on your build Will Fuller and DK Metcalf are also popping. Outside the stacks Terry McLaurin has been on fire and is dirt cheap. Loading up on these players with or without the QB is a fine building point.
TOP PLAY: DeAndre Hopkins
TOP VALUE: Terry McLaurin
Evan Engram is seeing 8+ targets each game and is the preferred “spend-up”. Arizona is the worst defence against TE’s so Will Dissly is the value play of the week (18 and 20 fpts last two weeks). Outside these two it’s pretty weak with Waller>Andrews>Walker.
TOP PLAY: Evan Engram
TOP VALUE: Terry McLaurin
Not a high priority for me this week but it’s looking like Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos (low scoring and at home), or Houston Texans should fit.
TOP PLAY: Houston Texans
TOP VALUE: Denver Broncos
Wilson + Lockett + Dissly, SEA @ ARI
Logic is simple here. These three are simply playing too good right now and their pricing hasn’t adjusted enough considering who they are playing against.
Rivers + Allen + Ekeler, LAC @ MIA
The Chargers have the second highest implied total this week so even if you’re not going to go with this stack you should definitely have exposure to this game with at least 1 player.
Watson + Hopkins + Fuller, HOU vs CAR
Just loading up on Texans against a weaker Caroline team that’s on the road for the second straight week. Houston is implied to score the 6th highest points this week.
Giants and Redskins
I’m taking the easy way out here as there are a few ways we can go. Jones, Gallman, Shepard and Engram all offer decent and affordable plays but it’s still the Giants so you’d want to limit your exposure. This would be high risk and the reward probably comes from salary savings where you can pick other home run players. From the Redskins side you’d be looking at running it back with McLaurin.
QB – Russell Wilson
RB – Austin Ekeler
RB – Wayne Gallman
WR – Deandre Hopkins
WR – Keenan Allen
WR – Terry McLaurin
TE – Will Dissly
FLEX – DK Metcalf
DST – Houston Texans