DFS NFL Strategy

DFS NFL Strategy

There are two fields of thought when it comes to whether to not stacking players from the same team increases your chances of winning. The two most common stacks are:

(1) QB + WR/TE 
(2) RB + DST 

Looking at the first stack, the theory is obvious. If your QB plays well odds are their WR’s/TE plays well.  A single touchdown can account for 14 fantasy points. Two touchdowns and your’re laughing to the bank.  However, your eggs are all in one basket so if either has a bad game you’ll be hurting. The converse of this theory is – wouldn’t you have been better off picking a QB that threw 3 touchdowns instead? Statistically speaking it is simply very difficult to pick 8 unique players from 8 different teams and all have great games. If you can do it you’ll win big, but you’ll definitely lose more often than not. 

The second stack theory is around clock management. You’re banking on your team playing with the lead in a low(ish)-scoring game. The pay-off comes in the forth quarter when your running back is piling up the yards keeping the clock running while your defense is pressuring the quarterback getting sacks or interceptions.  The converse on this is a low scoring game doesn’t necessarily mean fantasy points for your defense and your running back still needs to score throughout the game.

Simply put, stacking is all about correlation and probabilities. Let’s look at the math: 

A few things pop:
 – The QB + WR/TE stack is highly correlated. As is the RB+DST.
 – The QB + Opp WR1 is also highly correlated.
 – You can infer there is also high correlation with QB+WR/TE+Opp WR 

Of course, individual circumstances have to play a factor and you have to do your research on the game. Vegas odds and total are extremely important. Divisional games tend to be more competitive. What’s the weather or wind during game-time?  Stud WR’s typically should be stacked with their QB’s. Does the QB target WR2 or the TE more often (thankfully “targets” is a commonly available stat).  

Another factor, and arguably the most important circumstance, is Salary. Naturally the best players cost more thus leaving you with fewer dollars to spend so paying up for the top QB and WR might not work in your favor. For me I tend to have the most success stacking a $6000 QB, with one or two or their pass catchers, plus the opponent WR. Then I like paying up for a RB from another game. Rule of thumb with the flex spot is RB for Cash and WR/TE for GPPs.   

In the end, sometimes stacking 2, or 3 or 4 works and sometimes it doesn’t. It’s not a science but the math does lean in your favor that a stack on some level raises your chance of winning. You’ll win more often than not with a stack and at the end of the season you’ll have more money in your pocket. 

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