NBA Fantasy Basketball DFS Strategy

NBA Fantasy Basketball DFS Strategy

I love Fantasy Basketball and I love Fantasy Basketball DFS even more. When you understand the types of games, which statistics to look at, and the process to construct your lineup, it’s very possible to have continuous long-term success. That’s because, of all the sports, basketball tends to be the the most consistent but you do need to be disciplined.

The goal of this article is to start from the basics – an overview of the types of games and how to manage your bankroll, then we will review what statistics are important and lastly we will tie it all together to create your player pool and ultimately tips on how to construct your lineups.

TYPES OF GAMES:
There are two main types of DFS games: Cash and GPPs (aka Tournaments). In short, Cash games payout to more than 25% of the field and GPPs payout to less than 25% of the field.  Cash games, like Head-to-Heads, Double-Ups, Triple-Ups and Quintuple-Ups will payout the exact same amount whether you finish 1st or just above the payout line. GPP payouts are scaled so the higher you finish the more money you’ll win. GPPs are where you go if you want to turn $1 into $1000.

Here comes the first lesson for continuous long-term success: Bankroll Management.  Turning $1 into $1000 sounds amazing but doing that is pretty rare and requires some contrarian luck. NBA DFS is a 240ish day grind so if you really want to make money you need to consider a 80/20 or 90/10 Cash to GPP ratio – I recommend half your wagers on Double-Ups, 10%-20% on GPPs, then the rest on Triple-Ups and Quintuple-Ups. It’s not sexy but this provides an attainable floor while providing upside to make the big money and it’s a lesson most of us learned the hard way.

BUILDING A PLAYER POOL:
My second lesson is taking 15 minutes to do some research rather than jumping in and building your lineups with free lineup optimizers. The amount of detail you put in is dependent upon the available time you have but I started making consistent money once I started building my own spreadsheet. Thankfully there are a lot of free resources out there. I rely on BasketballReference.com for Team Stats and Player Stats as well as a Vegas odds site like vegasinsider.com or oddsshark.com to get most of my information. In order to determine the matchups to exploit I gather:
TEAM STATS
Game Total & Spread (to determine implied team totals)
Average Team Points For/Against (to determine if they are projected to score more or less points than their average)
Possessions Per Game aka “Pace” (to determine faster pace or slower pace game than their average)
Defence vs Position (average Fantasy Points allowed by position)
PLAYERS STATS
Usage (essentially how often they have the ball in their hands)
Minutes Per Game (average minutes per game)
Fantasy Points Per Minute (average fantasy points per game)

Combine this data with Player Salary from your favourite DFS sites as well as make note of any injuries, who’s on a back-to-back, who has a revenge narrative and the ultimate piece of information: who’s on hot/cold streaks (I look at last 3 games averages). Before you know it you have all the information you need to determine which matchups you are going to exploit. The item’s in the list above are the easy stuff and a great start for your player pool. The items in this paragraph would be the next level and a little time consuming initially, but it is worth it. This is where you find you value plays and which studs are going to crush.

THE GOOD NEWS – I’ve already done all this work and my nightly NBA picks take all this into consideration.

LINEUP CONSTRUCTION:
The final piece. Now you need to combine all that information above with some DFS knowledge to build the perfect lineup. This is where things get interesting. There are websites that publish the “perfect lineup” from the night before. Analysing these perfect lineups can provide a wealth of information:

DraftKings:

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FanDuel:


The takeaway here is that allocating more salary towards PG and PF while focusing on value at SF tends to provide the best results. It’s also important to note the scoring differences between FD and DK – primarily DK provides extra points for 3 pointers, double-doubles, triple-doubles and less negative points for turnovers. This means your strategy has to be different for each site and a player you roster on one site might not be a player you roster on the other.

The last piece of information is Stacking and the answer is YES you should do it. Nearly 90% of the perfect lineups had at least one pair of teammates.

SUMMARY:
You now know how to allocate your bankroll on what games, what statistics are important to build your player pool, and where to allocate your salary from your player pool.  You’re ready to play some DFS!  If you like FREE money check out the OFFERS we have from the major DFS sites to get you started. As always, if you have questions don’t hesitate to ask.  


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